大促盘货S&OP流程自动化 — 备货追踪、预案生成与紧急补货闭环

"""
大促盘货S&OP流程自动化系统
功能：双路预测收敛 + 备货追踪矩阵 + 紧急补货触发 + 预案生成
"""
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import List, Dict, Optional, Tuple
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')


@dataclass
class PromoSKUPlan:
    """大促SKU计划单元"""
    sku_id: str
    abc_class: str
    # 历史大促数据
    last_promo_sales: int           # 上次大促销量
    last_promo_gmv: float           # 上次大促GMV
    # 本次预测
    growth_factor: float            # 增长系数（如1.3=30%增长）
    # 采购状态（每周更新）
    ordered_qty: int = 0            # 已下采购单量
    confirmed_inbound: int = 0      # 已确认入库量
    in_transit_qty: int = 0         # 在途量
    eta_confidence: float = 0.9     # 在途到货置信度
    current_stock: int = 0          # 当前库存
    # 成本参数
    unit_margin: float = 30.0       # 单位毛利($)
    air_freight_premium: float = 8.0  # 空运附加费/件($)
    lead_time_sea: int = 35         # 海运提前期
    lead_time_air: int = 7          # 空运提前期

    @property
    def bottom_up_forecast(self) -> int:
        """自下而上预测"""
        return int(self.last_promo_sales * self.growth_factor)

    @property
    def effective_supply(self) -> int:
        """有效供应量（含在途加权）"""
        return (self.confirmed_inbound
                + int(self.in_transit_qty * self.eta_confidence)
                + self.current_stock)

    @property
    def supply_gap(self) -> int:
        return max(self.bottom_up_forecast - self.effective_supply, 0)

    @property
    def gap_rate(self) -> float:
        return self.supply_gap / max(self.bottom_up_forecast, 1)


class PromoSOP:
    """大促S&OP协同引擎"""

    def __init__(self, promo_name: str, promo_date: datetime,